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rayg50
 Senior Member
497 Posts
[Mentor]
NYC, NY
USA
Honda
Shadow Spirit 750DC
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 Posted - 10/18/2009 : 2:17 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by gymnast
... "Eysenck personality Profiler"...
I will try to do a bit more reading but a quick google seems to suggest that it is a questionnaire. I wonder if a version exists where a third party, based upon interviews, could accurately fill it out for someone else, within an acceptable margin of error.
Gymnast, thank you for heading me in what I believe to be the right direction.
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Night Train
Moderator
942 Posts
[Mentor]
Sydney, Nova Scotia
Canada
Harley-Davidson
Softail and Touring
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Posted - 10/18/2009 : 3:56 PM
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I've downloaded a working demo off their site but haven't had a chance to look at it yet. Once I do, I'll post my impressions of it.
I downloaded it from http://www.cymeon.com/download1.asp You may be required to confirm your email address in order to receive it.
Edited for UPDATE:
I installed the demo on my computer but when I activated the program a window came up advising that due to the sensitive nature of the questions in the survey only those who have received an access code from Cymeon could access it. It provides a button to email for a code but requires a business email address of which I have none. Perhaps someone else would better meet their criteria to test out this product. |
Edited by - Night Train on 10/18/2009 7:19 PM |
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galileo
Standard Member
128 Posts
Florence, Co
USA
Suzuki
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Posted - 10/18/2009 : 4:20 PM
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quote:
ray50g wrote:
I wonder about what I have put in boldface, not infrequently. I tend to refer to it as ones personality. I mentioned it in another thread where I wondered if a particular personality was drawn to Iron Butt riding. To me it is a critical piece to the puzzle.
I'm curious why you pick this particular group?
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SkootchNC
Senior Member
327 Posts
[Mentor]
raleigh, north carolina
USA
Harley-Davidson
road glide
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Posted - 10/18/2009 : 8:08 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Niebor
Dare I ask the obvious question, relating to statistical significance of those of us, Over 50? 
Many "re-entry" riders are now in their 50's. I'm afraid we will soon become "over represented", if we are not already.
I fear many re-entry riders vastly overestimate the skills they remember from their brief period of motorcycling, just as they imagine those bikes as being vastly superior than they actually were. |
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twc
Advanced Member
627 Posts
[Mentor]
Fort Collins, CO
USA
Harley-Davidson
Electra Glide Ultra
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Posted - 10/18/2009 : 10:58 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by SkootchNC
I fear many re-entry riders vastly overestimate the skills they remember from their brief period of motorcycling, just as they imagine those bikes as being vastly superior than they actually were.
Skootch,
Don't forget the obvious: In some cases it's probably for the best that we forgot the skills we thought we had. 
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bachman1961
Advanced Member
952 Posts
[Mentor]
colorado springs, co
USA
Honda
CB750 NightHawk
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Posted - 10/19/2009 : 2:04 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by Axiom2000
I understand, and I was not taking any shot at you for your use of the description ,"Autoundngly High". It is just hard to believe that they picked 100 people for a study on crashes and 67 of them randomly crashed. I guess I would need to read about the selection process to gain a better understanding.
I have not perused this entire thread yet but I just have to chime in here now with a quick thought before I forget it;
I submit that if you took 100 drivers and told them all to perform a mild crash intentionally, 33 of them would chicken out at the last minute.  Shocking is a good word for it too !
~brian |
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DataDan
Junior Member
96 Posts
[Mentor]
Central Coast, CA
USA
Honda
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Posted - 10/19/2009 : 1:27 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Axiom2000
quote:
Recently Virginia Tech did a study on 100 drivers using a data recorder for all the drivers over a one year period. Out of this 100 drivers there were 67 crashes. (They did some preselection to eliminate very safe drivers but that number is still astoundingly high.)
Normally I would think when a description like "astoundingly high" were used to describe a reaction to a surprising result it would grab your attention. In this case, it seems inadequate. That many results just seem unreal to me. Unless of course they really picked the cream of the crop of accident prone, reckless drivers. I did not read the entire study so I may be all wet but yep that number is astoundingly high
I agree that the number of crashes experienced by the drivers (actually 109 people participated) seems unreasonable. However, it should be noted that 15 drivers accounted for 39 42 crashes, 24 were involved in 1 crash, and 70 drivers had no crashes at all. Further, as already mentioned, the threshold of "crash" (recorded via accelerometers) was low. Of the 69 66 crashes, only 12 were reported to police, and the non-reported crashes included 36 categorized as "Non-police-reported low-g physical contact or tire strike (greater than 10 mph)", apparently without property damage, as a higher category did did include property damage. My conclusions are based on data in The 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study: Phase II Results of the 100-Car Field Experiment.
Also the experiment was conducted in the DC metro area, which is reputed to be one of the worst driving environments in the US.
edit: correct the strikethru text above |
Edited by - DataDan on 10/19/2009 2:28 PM |
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bachman1961
Advanced Member
952 Posts
[Mentor]
colorado springs, co
USA
Honda
CB750 NightHawk
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Posted - 10/19/2009 : 2:13 PM
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DataDan;
Nice job with the follow up.
Those are some pretty skewed standards that make those numbers sound reasonable after all the digging.
Adding the DC area to it's mix now makes me suspicious of the 'agenda' but I guess if I took the time to review it, those qualifiers are listed in there.
I wonder if there is a majority view on this study for effective information due to the convoluted nature of it's variables?
~brian |
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rayg50
Senior Member
497 Posts
[Mentor]
NYC, NY
USA
Honda
Shadow Spirit 750DC
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Posted - 10/19/2009 : 7:02 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by galileo
ray50g wrote:
... where I wondered if a particular personality ... To me it is a critical piece to the puzzle.
I used the other thread as an illustration of what I meant by personality. Any group mentioned was not intended to be pertinent. I do thank you for the opportunity to expand upon my point for feedback by you and others.
Data Dan had said quote:
And to what extent is experience simply a weeding-out process, through which people who don't possess some unknown innate abilities and attitudes find that the perceived risk exceeds a level they find tolerable?
The emphasis is mine. I have wondered that point since returning to motorcycling. I call it personality some refer to it as temperament. Data Dan phrases it differently and in a way better. On this board it is alluded to when saying that one must always be in control of oneself.
We can study ages, machines, road conditions, weather as factors yet miss that factor (temperament) if it is not quantifiable. IMO, temperament and state of mind need to be part of any study.
Temperament I view somewhat as your long term state of mind. State of mind I view as your immediate tendency to act or react. If both are not part of the research then I think a pretty big boat will have been missed.
Since this forum is read I feel it necessary to offer this perspective.
my .02
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DataDan
Junior Member
96 Posts
[Mentor]
Central Coast, CA
USA
Honda
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Posted - 10/20/2009 : 11:33 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by bachman1961
Those are some pretty skewed standards that make those numbers sound reasonable after all the digging.
Adding the DC area to it's mix now makes me suspicious of the 'agenda' but I guess if I took the time to review it, those qualifiers are listed in there.
I wonder if there is a majority view on this study for effective information due to the convoluted nature of it's variables?
Via doppler radar included in the instrumentation package, they reported even lesser events than those minor impacts but called them "near crashes".
I think there's a benefit to using this data when analyzing driver behavior. If you accept the "iceberg" theory of crashes--i.e., serious impacts are just the tip of the iceberg, and many less serious impacts and near misses with similar causes go unreported--the expansive definition gives you a lot more events to correlate with driver behavior.
The results of the study include valuable conclusions about inattentive driving. Rather than an "in vitro" lab experiment about the effect of a certain activity on a person's ability to focus on driving-like tasks, it provided an "in vivo" environment that enabled researchers to observe people while actually driving (via cameras). For more info see the Executive Summary near the front of the document linked in my previous post. |
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ST-rider
Starting Member
4 Posts
Memphis, TN
USA
Honda
ST1300A
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Posted - 11/03/2009 : 3:09 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by DataDan
quote:
Originally posted by Niebor
Dare I ask the obvious question, relating to statistical significance of those of us, Over 50?
We are, of course, the elite. 
Somehow, we managed to survive those deadly "overrepresented" years 16-24 at the time of Hurt's study and lived to achieve what we might expect to be the coveted "underrepresented" ranking this time around.
Your post raises a serious question, though. In Hurt's study, the 50+ age group comprised only about 3% of the both the crashers and the exposure sample, far too few instances to have any statistical power. We have many more 50+ riders now, and some have many years of continuous experience, which should tend to reduce crash involvement. Others, though, are relative newbies, or have been away from riding for so long that that haven't retained any useful skills, but they would be expected to generally have lower risk tolerance due to their age. What should we expect to see in the next study?
And here's another question about experience that I sometimes ponder when I find myself wide awake at 3:00am: To what extent is the well-demonstrated risk reduction benefit of experience due to skill and judgment gained from years of riding? And to what extent is experience simply a weeding-out process, through which people who don't possess some unknown innate abilities and attitudes find that the perceived risk exceeds a level they find tolerable?
To get back to the OSU crash causation study issue, there is more at
http://www.bikesafer.com/petition_resources.html
and http://www.bikesafer.com/blog/2009/...arisons.html cost comparisons with other studies and
http://www.bikesafer.com/blog/2009/...n-study.html which reveals some of the contractors and consultants doing the work. These include Dynamic Science, Westat and Jim Ouellet. Westat played a co-ordination or management role in the pilot study and is expected to do the same in the full study. Ouellet is quoted as charging $250/hr or more for consultancy work in the QA area, and Dynamic Science employs (or maybe contracts) the three Los Angeles based researchers who collected the data for the 53-crash pilot study and are expected to do the same for the full study.
We don't know what Westat charges, but surely management and co-ordination is one of the things that OSU should be providing for their 20% cut of the study money.
Jim Ouellet is a well-respected researcher, was part of the Hurt study and worked for the Head Protection Lab for years, and had published some fine research. It seems like Dr. Ahmed, who is an engineer and not used to this type of study has decided to use Ouellet, at his full rack rate that he charges as an expert witness and accident reconstruction expert, in the role of a QA consultant. OECD (see http://www.bikesafer.com/blog/2009/...plained.html) requires a 10% QA sampling rate, and this is for a methodology that is designed to be implemented by graduate students, but Dr.Ahmed had QA'd every case in the pilot and is planning to QA at least 70 percent of the full study sample.
This is overkill, plain and simple. If you are using professional researchers, such as the Dynamic Science guys, you should not have to do extra QA as well. The very expensive, 250+ per hour (plus expenses) QA consultancy is probably a large part of the reason for the excessive per-crash data collection cost. This is no longer QA, it is more like management.
The other main part of the per-crash data collection cost is the three researchers belonging to Dynamic Science. Everybody is very secretive about how much DS is charging for their guys, but the industry gossip suggests rates between just under $100/hour and around $150/hour, probably plus expenses. That would put the field cost of the team well in excess of $300 per hour.
There is no denying that the Dynamic Science researchers are probably very competent, possibly the very best there is. The same is undeniably true of Ouellet. It is also the case that this is possibly the most expensive way possible that this study could have been done.
Hurt and Maids each recruited graduate students for the work. Students will work like dogs for $15 or $18 per hour plus some bennies like having their academic fees paid. OSU is at a disadvantage - they are (unless you are under 18) a no-helmet state, and the study funders have bent over backwards to facilitate the helmet law lobby. California was chosen partly because it is a helmet law state that is unlikely to produce much data on helmetless riders. So OSU is immediately forced to work away from its home turf, and probably didn't have many graduate students interested in traveling to a helmet-law state to do the research.
In this situation, it seems that the non-bike-expert Dr Ahmed decided to play it very safe and contract out all the work, from the data collection, administration and number-crunching to the QA/consultancy work. It didn't help that the LA area is crawling with ex Hurt star researchers, and legal experts.
Dr. Ahmed was sent out with the cash to buy a Ford Focus and came back with a gorgeous set of highly-decorative, solid platinum Cadillac hubcaps, and now he's looking for a ride back from the dealers.
He's desperately trying to work up some stats to 'prove' that the 300 sample size is OK, but see http://www.latimes.com/classified/a...935439.story where the LA Times quotes Dr Ahmed as saying "900 is the least we consider adequate from a statistical point of view."
[Edit: What was a request that you sign a petition has been deleted. There are more than a few questions in my mind as to that site's integrity and I'd rather not be a part of PROMOTING it here. JRD]
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gymnast
Moderator
2211 Posts
[Mentor]
Meridian, Idaho
USA
Harley-Davidson
Sportster Sport
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Posted - 11/03/2009 : 6:01 PM
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| ST-rider. Are you the same Ed Johnson that was involved with the United Sidecar Association several years ago? What is your relationship if any with bikesafer.com? |
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ST-rider
Starting Member
4 Posts
Memphis, TN
USA
Honda
ST1300A
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Posted - 11/03/2009 : 8:33 PM
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Gymnast
No, I am not that Ed Johnson, I have never ridden a sidecar combo. I don't have a relationship with bikesafer.com but I have the same bike as ET of that site (Fergus Nolan), live in the same town, and have ridden with him and Special Ed and some of the guys from Bikesafer a few times.
I do think that ET's research on the crash causation study is pretty good, and he asked me to sign their petition and I did.
There is definitely a problem with that study and as tax dollars are being spent on it one way or the other, it would be better to fix it, if it can be fixed.
I get the impression that you are tight with some of the Head Protection Research Lab folks and some of the crash investigation people who are working on the study, maybe you could ask around and find out more? |
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gymnast
Moderator
2211 Posts
[Mentor]
Meridian, Idaho
USA
Harley-Davidson
Sportster Sport
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Posted - 11/03/2009 : 9:00 PM
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ST-rider, thanks for your response. I have met some of the people that you mentioned as being involved, however I severed my connections and professional connection with motorcycle safety research and program development activities many years ago. For some excellent insights into the inner workings of the "motorcycle safety power structure" in terms of policy and direction I suggest you see Wendy Moons website, "Moonrider Redux". Her research and fact checking are about the best there is on the subject.
Motorcycle safety research, in my opinion is all about money, at least in terms of virtually all of "the rice bowls involved" in the real world and very little about reducing the losses resultant from crashes involving motorcycles. The OSU study is just one more example of the nonsense that is typical of the "Motorcycle Safety Leadership" since the Motorcycle Safety Foundation came into existence almost 40 years ago. This is not to say that a lot of people have made sincere efforts to reduce the risk and consequence of motorcycle operation over the years. I will say despite the best intentions of many, the positive results of those efforts have been pathetically few for the efforts expended and the costs incurred. |
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galileo
Standard Member
128 Posts
Florence, Co
USA
Suzuki
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Posted - 11/05/2009 : 6:49 PM
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quote:
rayg50 said:
I I wondered if a particular personality was drawn to Iron Butt riding. To me it is a critical piece to the puzzle.
I've noticed iron butt riders have a particular style of riding. I mean the ones who do it regularly, not those who do one event.
The other day, I noticed a guy pull into a rest area. He was in complete control of his ST1000 and did a snappy U turn into a parking space. The aux tank was well hidden, so I didn't notice it.
Anyway, I went over to talk to him and it turns out he was on a ride from California to Colorado and back. He made the trip to go to a memorial service. On the way back to California, he was going to stop in southern NM.
Sure enough, he had finished an Iron Butt Rally.(The 11 day one.)
Yesterday, I followed a guy for about 20 miles on the interstate. I noticed he was making all the right choices. Staying away from packs of traffic. Keeping to the speed limit. Not tailgating, etc.
So, when he stopped in a rest area, I followed him in. He was on his way from Prudhoe Bay to Florida. Yes, the ice road in the winter. On a 650cc BMW.
I'd say the overwhelming riding characteristic is efficency in traffic. Staying out of trouble and not being in a hurry. Yet when there is a safe opening, they seem to melt through traffic.
On a long distance link serve, I saw a discussion about how much to stay below the speed limit. There seems to be a consensus that it takes more energy per mile to go over the speed limit than lower than the speed limit.
They have a "uniform" like others. The Aerostitch Roadcrafter suit in bright yellow is pretty standard. I have one and it's very comfortable. Warm when it's cold and cool whent it's warm. Plus its completely waterproof. Full face helmet, heated gear and a stadium buddy. (don't ask.) BMW's are pretty standard, but are becoming less popular due to drive shaft failures.
Most don't consider the distances they ride to be anything exceptional. It's just what they do. I've never seen one appear tired, even late in the day.
Personally, I'm not into riding at night, so I don't aspire to those levels. But I did ride 45,000 miles last year and expect more this year. Probably in the neighborhood of 70,000 miles with at least half of it on a 400 cc bike. (Just for fun.) |
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